Daily TEA – Crumbling Moats, Volatile Silver & Quantum Leaps
AI market share, silver vs. bitcoin, China chips, RWAs, quantum computing and more
Hello, dear TEA-mates, and happy last day of 2025!
It has been a pleasure writing this newsletter, and thank you to everyone who has consistently supported the content. This project began in mid-January of this year, and as of today—the final day of 2025—a total of 236 posts have been published.
Next year, the newsletter will partner with Cities Decoded, marking a new chapter for this work. Hopefully more commentary and deeper reflections will come along the way. There is a lot to look forward to together!
Thank you again for all your support. Excited for the new year and everything it will bring—cheers! 🫶
All that said, here’s what you need to know today.
1.🧠 ChatGPT’s Market Share Lead Starts to Crumble
OpenAI’s ChatGPT has seen its share of global traffic to generative AI tools slide from 87.2% a year ago to 68%, while Google’s Gemini has climbed from 5.4% to 18.2%, signaling intensifying competition in both consumer and enterprise AI. ChatGPT still dominates consumer use with over 80% share, but in the enterprise segment Anthropic’s Claude now leads with 32% versus OpenAI’s 25%, highlighting a split between B2C and B2B adoption. Analysts expect the market to consolidate into an oligopoly of three to five major players, with Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic likely holding 20–40% each as open-source models lower technical barriers but distribution and ecosystem lock-in rise in importance. (Read More)
🫖 TEA For Thought: The dominance of ChatGPT will only shrink from here unless there is a fundamental shift in how humans interact with AI; as model costs stay high and UX expectations rise, the AI market will only grow more competitive.
2.⚙️ Silver’s Volatility Surges Past Bitcoin
Silver’s 30-day realized volatility has jumped into the mid-50% range, overtaking bitcoin’s mid-40% volatility as traders funnel macro risk into metals while keeping BTC in a relatively low-volatility, range-bound pattern. Silver is up more than 151% year-to-date, driven by a sharp demand–supply mismatch as industrial needs from solar panels, EVs, electronics, and batteries collide with constrained supply and new Chinese export licensing that tightens physical markets. Bitcoin, meanwhile, trades nearly 30% below its all-time high, with fading spot ETF demand and narrative fatigue keeping price action muted even as options expiries and thin holiday liquidity shape short-term moves. (Read More)
🫖 TEA For Thought: With silver, it really comes down to straightforward supply and demand—intense industrial and inflation-hedging demand on one side, structurally limited supply as a byproduct metal on the other, amplified by tech and green-energy needs.
3.🏭 China Pushes 50% Domestic Equipment Rule for Chipmakers
China is quietly requiring chipmakers seeking approval for new or expanded fabrication capacity to source at least 50% of their equipment from domestic suppliers, part of a broader push for a self-sufficient semiconductor supply chain. Companies must prove via procurement tenders that half of their tools are Chinese-made, with authorities informally signaling a long-term goal of 100% local equipment, although requirements are relaxed for the most advanced production lines where domestic tools are not yet viable. The move, which follows U.S. export controls on advanced chips and tools, is already steering fabs toward local vendors such as Naura and AMEC even in segments where foreign alternatives remain available. (Read More)
🫖 TEA For Thought: It is hard to tell whether this is mostly signaling for the West or a hard policy line, but behind the scenes smuggling will likely continue while Beijing projects an image of total self-reliance to bolster national prestige.
4.🪙 RWA Protocols Leap Into DeFi’s Top Tier
Real-world asset protocols have overtaken decentralized exchanges to become the fifth-largest category in decentralized finance by total value locked, with TVL rising to around $17 billion from $12 billion at the end of 2024, according to DefiLlama. Tokenized Treasurys, private credit, and similar products have evolved from experiments into core DeFi primitives, driven by higher interest rates, clearer regulation, and institutional balance-sheet incentives that favor on-chain yield instruments. Ethereum remains the primary settlement layer for on-chain debt and funds, while permissioned infrastructure like the Canton Network has captured over 90% of institutional RWA volume by combining regulatory compliance, privacy, and links to public DeFi liquidity. (Read More)
🫖 TEA For Thought: It may only be a matter of time before RWAs climb to the number-one spot—tokenizing real assets effectively bridges TradFi and DeFi, and the sheer scale of traditional finance ported on-chain through RWA could redefine the DeFi market.
5.⚛️ Quantum Computing Edges Closer to Real-World Impact
In 2025, quantum computing moved from largely theoretical promise toward tangible applications, with advances spanning government programs, big tech research, and startup hardware efforts focused on scaling qubits and reducing error rates. Google’s Quantum Echoes algorithm, for example, demonstrated a verifiable quantum advantage by running on its Willow chip to simulate molecular structures faster than leading classical supercomputers, while neutral-atom systems like Caltech’s 6,100-qubit platform improved coherence times and gate precision toward error-corrected architectures. These milestones suggest quantum machines are gradually becoming practical tools for fields such as chemistry, materials science, and optimization, especially as AI and classical compute help design and optimize future quantum systems. (Read More)
🫖 TEA For Thought: This trajectory is both inspiring and promising—paired with AI, quantum breakthroughs will likely accelerate scientific discovery even further.
Prompt Tip of the Day: Reflect on New Years Eve with Me
“Generate a year-end reflection question or summary tailored to me based on my experiences, emotions, and growth this year. Focus on what truly mattered, what changed me the most, and what I want to carry into the new year.”
TEAHEE Moment
Stay sharp, stay informed. Happy New Year! See you in 2026!
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